新兴市场是什么意思 新兴市场国家面临信贷隐忧

新兴市场国家面临信贷隐忧  

China's latest interest rate cut shows Beijing's willingness to contribute to global efforts to ease credit in response to the slowdown induced by the eurozone crisis–just as it did four years ago after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Unfortunately
its results are unlikely to have the same impact as in 2008-9.
The wave of credit released then by China and other emerging economies washed around the globe
boosting demand for Chilean copper
German cars
and luxury property from Hong Kong to Rio de Janeiro.
Now the world can no longer count on emerging markets to deliver the same. Many have less room for financial manoeuvre owing to the after-effects of the post-2008 easing
including higher levels of credit
fears of real estate bubbles and bad loans
and a legacy of unprofitable boom-time investments.
现如今世界不能再继续寄望由新兴经济体扭转形势。2008年以后的信贷宽松带来一系列后续影响，包括信贷水平高企，人们担忧房地产泡沫和不良贷款问题，以及经济过热期的投资项目盈利能力不足等，受此影响，很多新兴市场国家的货币政策操作空间缩小。
Furthermore
even if governments do release more money
it will have less impact now because good investment projects are harder to find.
As David Lubin
head of emerging markets economics at Citigroup
the US bank
says of China: "A side effect of [its] investment push is that investment efficiency collapsed. As a result
it now takes more investment to generate an extra unit of GDP. In the same way
it also requires more credit."
China leads the list of emerging-world governments to expand public sector borrowing. Sovereign debt rose from 20 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 to 26 per cent last year
fuelling a domestic infrastructure boom and increased demand for modities. Poland also opened the taps
with its debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 45 per cent to 56 per cent.
Other governments that went into the crisis with already-high public debt
such as Brazil and India
were more cautious. However
the true credit boom in the developing world has been private rather than public debt
fuelled by low interest rates and willing lenders.
In China
private sector credit has risen from 107 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 127 per cent last year
according to Capital Economics
a consultancy. In Brazil
Turkey and Poland
private sector credit has meanwhile risen by as much as 20 percentage points of GDP.
Countries with slower credit growth are the exceptions. South Korea
for example
has held back because of an earlier painful credit boom
and India because of high interest rates induced by persistently high inflation.
Elsewhere
though
the credit surge is in full flow. The latest data show private credit grew in April at annualised rates of 20 per cent or more in Colombia
Indonesia
Turkey and Russia.
Although these countries are relative lateers to the credit binge
Brazil has been partying from the start. Private credit is still growing 23 per cent a year
even though borrowers are now struggling
as seen in rising delinquent car loans.
Credit growth can be a boon
especially in the emerging world: It speeds development by allowing governments to build infrastructure
panies to construct factories and families to buy homes and durable goods.
"I do believe that rapid expansion of credit plays a big part in the rise of the emerging world's middle classes
" says Arjun Divecha
chairman of US fund manager GMO.
But credit growth rates matter. Rapid rises are often linked to lax controls and property speculation
which can lead to bad debts and unproductive investments.
In China
for example
total credit expanded by almost half of GDP in 2009
and again in 2010. Now
some economists say
it may have maxed out.