李良：急流勇退以救世界粮荒

急流勇退以救世界粮荒 - 反思活化燃油的发展此其时矣! (大观系列四﹕人类及其命运)

(李良书简二零零八年二月二十二日之二)

“你控制了石油, 就控制了所有国家; 控制了粮食, 就控制了人类.”

-    季辛吉 (Henry Kissinger, 注一)

甫于日昨宣告退休的高龄古巴革命英雄和领导者费特尔卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro), 于去年三月二十九日, 因北方国家(代表欧盟及美加澳日等国)无节制的开发农业燃油(Agrofuel, 即产自农业作物的所谓活化燃油, Biofuel)一事, 在机关报 “Granma” 上发表了一篇社论, 向那刚跟巴西签定以农作物提炼乙醇(Ethanol)协约的乔治布什(George W. Bush) 放了一炮, 明言如果不加节制, 将会有三十亿人类因饥馑而死, 替那占地球人口大多数的南方 (包括第三世界跟未开发及开发中国家) 人民请命 (注二).

李良书简曾先后发布及引用了有关粮荒跟活化燃油的科学或社会报导的应时文献四十四种, 谨将这些报导罗列于此文之后, 以供参考. 总结了这些科学研究跟社会实践的双面报导之后,现阶段于有关活化燃油的发展, 我们有如下的反思:

1. 费特尔卡斯特罗言犹在耳, 至今为止不到一年之间, 联合国农粮组织的最新统计, 全球粮食价格通涨了40%. 为此, 联合国农粮组织建立四十年来, 第一次发布了粮食短缺的警报. 印度尼西亚跟墨西哥已因粮食的涨价和短少而发生暴乱, 许多受害于活化燃油发展的第三世界的国家, 已严重到政府必须出动军队来保护粮源.

与此同时, 因种植制造活化燃油作物取地所需, 世界森林及草原被砍伐清除的面积, 正以史无前例的惊人速度进行.

2. 最新报导, 米, 麦, 黄豆, 棕榈油等的基本民生需求, 均已至少涨价一倍. 而且这种涨势, 还将方兴未艾.
3. 操控集团透过西方政府与财团, 散播活化燃油虚假的经济命题, 空中楼阁式的能源独立梦想, 以及空洞的的环保利益, 向大众洗脑宣传. 可科学的验证却恰好适得其反, 于此, 在严肃的刊物科学(Science)杂志上已至少有两篇以上的科学论文以证其非.
4. 由于三的科学验证, 我们看到的是由于要生产活化燃油作物, 不得不大量地清除了森林和草原, 以致超巨大地增加了地球大气中二氧化碳的存量, 加速了地球暖化(Global Warming)的进行; 其程度甚而过于传统石化燃油(Fossil Fuel, 即石油)的使用.

有人估计, 因清除森林和草原而引起的”碳”债(Carbon Debt), 人类即使花了一个世纪, 还不一定可以还得完.

5. 目前活化燃油的发展, 是基于反经济和不正义的方式而进行的. 反经济的一面是由政府津贴作物的种植和活化燃油的买卖; 不正义的的一面是以邻为壑, 不但破坏了穷国的环境生态, 还因作物的转移用途而引起世界的粮荒, 令占世界人口多数的穷人备受打击.
6. 以美国为例, 目前从玉米制作的乙醇(Ethanol)约七十亿加仑,国会已通过能源法案的要求是三百六十亿加仑, 此中一百五十亿加仑要来自玉米, 占美国目前玉米产量的三分之一强. 大家能想象美国玉米短缺三分之一对世界粮食供应跟价格的影响吗? 另外, 又以加拿大为例, 即使加拿大全国生产包括玉米在内的全部粮食, 都用来制造乙醇, 也只不过一百三十亿加仑而已!

朋友们! 你可知道? 当你装满了一缸的乙醇开车兜风的时候, 那用来制造这一缸乙醇的粮物, 可以给一个人吃一年吗?

要建构一个和谐的世界, 有太多我们尚未知晓的途径要去推敲. 但是有害于建构一个和谐的世界的物事, 我们都清楚明白, 那就是人间的不正义和不平等; 最显著的, 就是人间经济上的不正义和不平等. 这些人间经济上的不正义和不平等里, 发展活化燃油就是其中之大者. 李良持续地收集并传布了有关活化燃油发展的一些文献报导, 希望朋友们能一同反思, 进而能影响当政者急流勇退, 则为天下之苍生幸!

注一

李良书简二零零七年八月十一日, “浅说宋鸿兵的货币战争跟一些更深入的文件 - 从近日美国联邦储备局的救火行动谈起”

注二

李良书简二零零七年七月十五日之三, “从费特尔卡斯特罗跟乔治布什的南北对话看活化燃油的未来” (大观系列一﹕人类之能源使用及油峰现象)

注三

参考文献(后发先列)

1.     African NGOs call for moratorium on biofuels

http://www.afrol.com/articles/28075

2.     Bad Biofuel Policy Boosts Asian Inflation

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1056&Itemid=32

3.       Biofuels - An Assault on the World`s Poor

       http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=10&bKeyFlag=BO&autono=314211

4.      Don't be biofooled about biofuels

       http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vpbio185582310feb18,0,373591.story

5.     .High Growth Forecasted for the Biofuel Market in Asia

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080219005696&newsLang=en

6. As Asia food prices bite, analysts warn of worse to come

         http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20080210-117953/As-Asia-food-prices-bite-analysts-    warn-of-worse-to-come

7. Biofuels Deemed a Greenhouse Threat

        http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/08/science/earth/08wbiofuels.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1

8. Biofuels May Hinder Antiglobal-Warming Efforts

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120241324358751455.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

        http://www.newsweek.com/id/107575/page/2

10. Royal Society expresses biofuel concern

http://supplychainanalysis.igd.com/index.asp?id=14&retid=0&isid=0&tab=3&nid=400

11.  Rethink biofuel, says Nobel laureate

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20080114-112152/Rethink-biofuel-says-Nobel-laureate

13. Scientist sees few benefits from biofuels

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/scientist.sees.few.benefits.from.biofuels/16007.htm

14. Petrol expert turns to biofuel

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/09/content_6379851.htm

15.  Leading biofuels wreak environmental havoc
    
    
    

http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0103-biofuels.html

16.  Biofuels gain, but food farms, forests lose

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view_article.php?article_id=106052

17. Biofuels: danger or new opportunity for Africa?

        http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j1bW-2RV10JalQCwxL4G7XQR32ew

18. Cuban and Vietnamese Experts Blast Biofuel Fever

http://www.cubaheadlines.com/2007/12/07/7532/cuban_and_vietnamese_experts_blast_biofuel_fever.html

19. Russia: Putin assigned to stimulate the production of biofuel

http://www.agrimarket.info/showart.php?id=52771

20. London Biofuel Investment seminar runs scared of protestors

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/11/386656.html

21.  New Report Warns Biofuel Crop Cultivation May Worsen Global Warming

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7009221849

22. Biofuel to cut emissions starting in 2011

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/2007/11/16/131068/Biofuel-to.htm

23.  UN Rep Praises Cuba Biofuel Stance

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B39A1063A-324F-4094-A991-A8DEBD250A75%7D)&language=EN

24.  Ethanol's dark side: Harsh working conditions mark production of Brazilian biofuel

 http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20071021/business/business4.html

25.  ENVIRONMENT: Biofuels - Great Green Hope or Swindle

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39740

26.  UN expert urges farmers to halt biofuel crop production in effort to reduce hunger

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/10/15/europe/EU-GEN-EU-UN-Biofuel.php

27.  China: Biofuel will not hit food, water supply

http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=3&storyid=5967

28.  China and India also warned about water/biofuels conflict

http://www.biofuelreview.com/content/view/1261/

29.  Warning on danger of biofuels

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/warning-on-danger-of-biofuels/2007/10/03/1191091193489.html

30.  Biofuels 'speed up' warming

http://www.worldnewsaustralia.com.au/region.php?id=140268&region=4

31.  Calls grow for EU biofuel rethink

http://green.itweek.co.uk/2007/09/calls-grow-fo-1.html

32.  Where's the water to grow biofuels?

http://www.business-standard.com/opinionanalysis/storypage.php?leftnm=4&subLeft=2&chklogin=N&autono=298478&tab=r  

33.  Mexican President vetoes biofuel law

http://www.checkbiotech.org/green_News_Biofuels.aspx?infoId=15659

34.  Africa: Food Prices Buoyed By Biofuel Affect Aid

http://allafrica.com/stories/200709130989.html

35.  Kenya: Biofuels Likely to Boost Energy But Increase Hunger, Now Critics Warn

http://allafrica.com/stories/200708281232.html

36.  Forget biofuels - burn oil and plant forests instead

http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12496-forget-biofuels--burn-oil-and-plant-forests-instead.html

37.  Thousands of Tanzanian peasants to be displaced for biofuel farm

http://www.afriquenligne.fr/news/daily_news/thousands_of_tanzanian_peasants_to_be_displaced_for_biofuel_farm_200708125667/

38.  Chavez warns of biofuel disaster

http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Energy/Analysis/2007/08/09/analysis_chavez_warns_of_biofuel_disaster/5011/

39.  Boom in biofuels could backfire

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10455962&pnum=2

40.  The great biofuel fraud

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IH01Dj01.html

41.  Biofuel demand makes fried food expensive in Indonesia

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?alias=biofuel-demand-makes-frie&chanId=sa003&modsrc=reuters

        SCIENCE NEWS

42.  The Great Biofuel Hoax

http://www.alternet.org/environment/54218/

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=73447

44.  How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html