商场中的人 需求决定市场 中国的商场太多了

需求决定市场 中国的商场太多了  

If you want to know what many urban Chinese get up to in their spare time
here’s the answer: they go to the mall.
According to China Confidential
a research service from the Financial Times
o-thirds of urban consumers regularly visit s hopp ing malls
with 40.9 per cent of mall visitors going to malls at least once a week (see chart below). Based on China Confidential’s demographic analysis
that works out at about 54m visitors to Chinese malls each week
more than the population of England. And most of these visitors are not just window shopping. On average
mall visitors made nine purchases or transactions over the past six months
with total annual spending in excess of Rmb700bn ($113bn).
This enormous footfall and spending has unsurprisingly sparked a wave of shopping mall construction across the country in recent years.
不难预料，近年来这种巨大的客流和支出在中国各地掀起了建造商场的热潮。
China accounted for 44 per cent of total global shopping mall pletions in 2014
according to real estate consultancy CBRE
with more mall space added in the central city of Wuhan alone (993
000 square metres) than in the whole of the Americas (800
000 sq m).
While growth in pleted mall floorspace in China did moderate slightly on an annual basis last year
the amount of mallspace in the pipeline in China remains enormous. At least 24m sq m of additional mallspace is under construction nationwide
according to CBRE
accounting for over 60 per cent of global mallspace under construction.
All of which has raised concerns about a potential overbuild of malls in China
especially as headline retail sales growth slows. This is a concern that even some industry participants share. Thirty-five per cent of mall managers reported an oversupply of malls in their area
with those in lower-tier cities markedly less positive than their counterparts in first and second-tier cities.
This points to a broader contrast in performance beeen shopping malls in China’s largest
wealthiest cities
and those in the smaller
mostly inland cities that are the focus of much of the current wave of shopping mall construction. In first-tier cities surveyed by China Confidential
76.5 per cent of mall managers reported positive revenue growth. By contrast
the proportion was just 62.5 per cent in second-tier cities and 43.8 per cent in third-tier cities.
Indeed
according to China Confidential’s survey
malls in smaller cities are lagging behind their counterparts in larger cities on almost every metric: foot traffic
occupancy rates and rental yields to name a few. And the sheer volume of mallspace expected to hit the market in these cities in ing years points to rising risks for mall developers in these markets
especially should retail sales continue to slow. Some of these mall developments are likely to be lossmaking
while others may prove to be white elephants.
But as with so many other markets in China
signs of oversupply in some markets should not be confused with a nationwide bubble. In China Confidential’s survey
64 per cent of mall managers said their malls were profitable. Demand for the wide range of retail
dining and leisure facilities offered by shopping malls continues to grow. Furthermore
most of the slowdown in retail spending over the past year has hit older retail formats
such as department stores
which are being squeezed by the growing popularity of malls and emerce.
It may not be quite as simple as ‘if you build it
they will e’. But even the poster child for China’s mercial property bears — the giant New South China Mall in Dongguan
the world’s largest
which for years has been little more than a ghost mall — finally appears to be showing signs of life.
Oversupply in lower-tier markets in particular is clearly a concern. But Chinese demand for shopping malls as a retail format is strong and growing. In this context
the scale of buildout in China seems rather more rational than the headline numbers may suggest.