标普将跌至300点，全球经济的真正复苏将始于三战结束

Roger Weigend预测标普将暴跌至265-371点。全球经济直到下次世界大战结束方能真正复苏（可能在2017年）。美国正面临自南北战争以来最坏的历史时期。

September and October are historically the worst trading months of the year  for shares markets. Our current cycle is no different. To make things even more difficult we are in this current transition cycle with severe fundamental problems that usually do not occur but once every 60-70 years in the K-Wave related events.

Our current K-wave struck exactly on time during the 1999-2000 Nasdaq price peak and selling event. The 1999 year minus 1929 is 70 years. There are arguments that K-waves average anywhere from 60-70 years so we say this one is spot on for the recurring K-cycle date. As in the case of Presidents Hoover and FDR, the current US administration, Federal Reserve and US Treasury along with their international colleagues are making the same 1930’s band aid repair mistakes all over again. The ugly is just beginning.

Manipulators like Greenspan and interference by congress and central banks to avoid even the smallest economic pain sealed the fact after 2000 that we get smashed and get it good and hard. In the 1920-1921 US depression, these authorities kept their hands off. They let economic nature takes its course and things repaired themselves by themselves; all in quick time. That depression was barely 18 months in duration. Not this time. This monster mess goes for years and as bad as it’s been, the worst is yet to come.

Had Mr. Greenspan not interfered with his subsequent give-away money programs for housing using Japan-style interest rates, we would have had an earlier recession and most probably a milder one. And, most important of all, perhaps a severe depression could have been avoided. That is not the case and that is not to be our outcome.

To make matters even worse, the global banks have not addressed their hidden mountain of toxic debts and are even actually writing new derivative paper with stolen taxpayer TARP money. The weaker nations, the little fish, like Iceland and Spain signal what horrors are yet to come for the still stronger but obviously failing economies of the bigger fish. Soon many more will be flopping on the banks of economic failure gasping for credit air.

These banker crooks are probably still holding 90% of the toxic derivatives in hidden and off-balance sheet accounts and back rooms of reconciliation departments to smother the knowledge it even exists. You better believe it exists and in prodigious amounts we cannot even fathom. In reality, governments and these banks are bankrupt but hiding behind the skirts of bailout TARP and other currencies and bonds printed out of thin air.

The chickens are coming to roost and there are vultures ready to pick debtor bones clean in courts throughout the world. A preponderance of toxic failures will probably never get to court as they cannot prove damages in a context of convoluted ownership documents. Was this part of the plan in the very beginning? We think it was a magnificent scam and it’s still in process! No one is stopping it.

A basic bedrock fact of investing and trading is about leverage. The more you lever your investments or trades the higher the risk. Futures traders understand this as they routinely take on more risk than most traders. However, the smart futures traders engaged in these activities clearly understand how to modify and reduce those risks or, they do not partake.

We recommend trading gold and silver futures in our newsletter but we implement tight risk control. Other commodity markets we deem to be too unstable are not touched-period.

Risks can be nearly as high and in some cases even higher in trading shares. Most traders and investors avoid these chancy ideas and trade shares with reasonable stops, as they routinely enter and exit trades using both technicals and fundamentals. In our view, the two, cyclically historic dates of spring and fall are the time to protect gains and in some cases exit markets entirely and wait for selling storms to blow-over.

When markets are greatly disturbed with seemingly unreasonable volatility, as we see today, trading ranges go wider, and day trading scalpers speed trade for small gains. They go long or short and don’t give a rip what happens tomorrow as they are flat and out before the day is over. They are always out on weekends and often do nothing mid-week if prices are sideways and channeled. The old phrase, “Gimme a Trend” is their mantra.

Markets are best operated without interference but new black box schemes pop-up with regularity. With the S&P currently being valued near 20 we see a forecast for it to fall to 7 on a new lower low with potential for an overshoot to 5. Mainstream analysts and pundits deem this to be heresy but we look at history and technicals and never believe New York or Washington media nonsense. It could be months away but we stand by this prediction.

In the 1930’s there was legislation to corral the Wild West habits of traders, bankers, investment banks and insurance companies. Over the last ten years these guys and gals pretty much had free rein to do as the pleased and now we live with the ugly aftermath.

Congress is basically useless, being in the pockets of lobbyists, scammers, foreign interests, the military-industrial complex, central bankers and a laundry list of large and small financial outlaws. The global financial system is one giant casino with almost no rules whatsoever. If you are in the game, risk control is mandatory or you will be skinned.

The American president is hell-bent on turning the USA capitalist system into one of socialism with a commie twist. His agenda is to accomplish this using Health Care, TARP, Education and Energy. One top analyst, a highly revered gentlemen doctor with a long history of accuracy says the president is terribly naïve, overly confident, inexperienced and narcissistic. Our primary concern is his path of foreign policy encouraging our international enemies by showing weakness and indecisiveness. These traits in a national leader in our view are a formula for a huge disaster both domestically and with non-US friends and enemies.

None of these people have concerns about rules. The American electorate with their old ideas of hard work, saving for a rainy day and investing with prudence are deemed quaint and passé.  Those days are gone for now and the outcome is a massive economic and social implosion. Yes, they can delay and band aid the troubles but we are long past the time when a recovery was possible. The US is not alone. In our view, the top ten most powerful nations and their economies are suffering simultaneously. Some much worse than others but we are all getting nailed. Russia is failing faster among the top economies as they were dependent upon energy prices, which fell like a rock.

We discuss these matters to provide a background for saving, growing retirement plans, trading, investing and managing all of this against a background of depression, economic crash and subsequent social fallout, which to us is flat out scary.

The formerly reliable systems of all levels of government from the federal to your local village can no longer be counted upon to do the right thing. When heavy pressures arrive to the extent they can change your life and threaten your very existence; all rules are out the window as we see a retreat to self-interest; every man and woman for themselves.

We saw this during the 1930’s with import-export trade selfishness. Nations want to sell their stuff but do not want to buy your stuff. We’ve seen some preliminary dust-ups between the US and our good friends in Canada which I find absolutely appalling. I probably have more good friends in Canada than the US by virtue of my business and social dealings.

When this nastiness first arose, instigated by US export tariffs, I was incensed and still am. Canadians have handled it gracefully and with dignity. I wish I could say the same about certain US business people and our out-of-control national government. Smoot-Hawley rules ride again to the detriment of all those playing these ill-conceived games.

The dumbo US politicians have also played into these trade tiffs with China. Me thinks these creeps are going to receive an even harder lesson from Asia. One that surfaced last week was that China is going to stiff those US lenders who pawned-off derivatives on them thinking they would cover and pay. The word we get is they will not pay and those involved in writing that crap can just go to hell. Too bad for them.

We suspect the Wild West derivative antics and illegal and semi-legal trading stuff is going to get jammed someplace the originator-writers will find quite uncomfortable. Somebody has to stop these dudes and with China holding strong cards in this game the naughty boyz bluff gets called. We wish China the best in making them behave. Somebody has to stop it some how.

On the other side of these concerns China has massive bubbles in their stock markets, bonds, currency, real estate, and certain industries. Western world imports from China have dropped 75-80%. The US was the larger importer and now these trade exchanges have fallen from a torrent to a trickle. This is a game changer as both imports and credit were mostly coming from outside of China for their benefit.

Mainstream news, analysts world-wide and others that still believe in the old paradigms, continue to tell us Asia is THE place forever, the sky is the limit and glory days are just around the corner. What’s even more interesting is these forecasts will be appear to be true from November 1, 2009 until later spring of 2010.

We suggest that in June-July of 2010 it will seem to most of the world the entire global system is in total and absolute collapse. Several very negative events converge and hit simultaneously on that cycle time frame. We are on record as saying a nasty haircut is due this month of October and previously called the date for a downer to be September 15th.

We were not that far off in calling the top as our current S&P most active futures trading chart is showing the peak at September 21-24. For now, this chart has formed an ABC correction. We called the high in the Dow for 9800 and the S&P for 1050. Those trading ranges were correct and now we expect the stronger selling to begin. The larger question is this: do we drop to 8400-8820 or something more like 7400-7200? Or, maybe even 6600?

Gold and silver shares are pausing and mildly selling but we see no big drama yet in the precious metals markets in either cash or futures or shares. Do we take some selling soon? I think we do, but if the milder version is our outcome it would seem to us that the milder version would be experienced within the precious metals sector as well.

What Would Central Planners And Schemers Do Next?

Choices are limited to printing more currencies and bonds. The uplift rallies in stocks between November, 2009 and May, 2010 provides a window for more shares to be sold, more loans to be made and a few more months for the enablers to continue current games. We know it has to end. There is no credit for consumers and the ranks of joblessness are rising in a storm. National government cannot pay its debts and neither can the states. There is no prominent engine of growth to get us out of this mess.

With all of the arrogance in Washington coupled with their gross naivete, it’s not only bad but seems unbelievably and intentionally stupid. It is that but not in the vein most would believe. This is about a naked grab for power. History tells us when these things surface, the pushback, especially from social aspects can be horrifying. We have no sympathy for those engaging in and condoning this evil. They will get their turn in the barrel just like the Sheeple. The difference this time is the pushback might be beyond the law.

This is a most important turning point in history. In my view, we’ve seen nothing like this since the US Civil War when Abe Lincoln saved the union. We can say this; we live in interesting times and you better hunker down and get out of the way.

Inflation breeds ever more inflation. It feeds on itself unless government raises interest rates (no chance Lucy) careening down a path of self-destruction. Own hard assets; not dollars. Buy silver and gold coins. Have your daily needs on the shelf saved for months in advance. Also, you better be prepared to discover that some day credit cards will not work. As my old partner used to say; “I’ll give you cash American but very little of it.”

We say a lot of this stuff is inevitable but some of it may never happen. However, just as in the FDR’s 1930’s, governments make the same mistakes over-and-over again. We think Greater Depression II lasts from 2009 until the next world war. Some tell us it ends in 2017. War is sadly the ultimate economic weapon to find depression exit relief. This, we would not wish on any one. Read American and world history from 1776 to the present. This is what we get; all over again.

Financials crashed in fall 2008 with Lehman. Recovery began with TARP May, 2009: During this month of October, 2009 we’re ending a dead cat bounce with a selling event later this month. Precious metals and their shares are toppy on this October 1, 2009, for the intermediate term. Beginning October 31 most all trends can reverse and moves to rallies.

Keep in mind, if you own paid for stuff it will most likely remain in your hands; not in somebody else’s. That includes gold and silver. Do not get tangled-up in daily noise. Keep studying the larger view and buy precious metals after each profit-taking correction. Headwinds are building into an economic hurricane. Take care of business right now. My dire fall prediction might surprise us and arrive a little later. Selling is now. But next summer could be the larger crash. Time is short.

Personally, I can see unbelievable opportunities to trade that we would never see again for many years. Turn these problems into opportunities. Those on the right side of the trade might get rich. Those on the other side are just victims. Stay Alert. –Traderr